Probabilistc Workshop 2017

Probabilistic methods in engineering gain a more and more important part in today’s design of components. The 15th International Probabilistic Workshop will be hold in connection with the 10th Dresdner Probabilistik Workshop. At this workshop, probabilistic methods and probabilistic results of investigations of machine components were presented and discussed during the last 9 years.

Date: 27 – 29 September 2017
Location: TU Dresden, Germany



Safety, reliability and risk are key issues in a world with continuously increasing complexity. So the consideration of safety and risk is a key issue for design and use of civil engineering structures, infrastructure works and machinery. Questions about the analysis and treatment of safety and risk arise, as well as questions about optimal safety levels or about acceptable values. Probabilistic methods in engineering gain a more and more important part in today’s design of components. Beside robustness and sensitivity analysis, the probabilistic engineering approach enables the execution of reliability analyses by considering the uncertainties of the designed components in the product development process. Those interested in structural safety, reliability and sensitivity analysis as well as in broader views on the subject will find appropriate sessions during the workshop. Possible topics include various aspects of structural and mechanical safety, probabilistic material and system description, probabilistic methods, risk assessment for design and use as well as for technical and natural hazards and risk perception.


The following paper will be published at the 15th International Probabilistic Workshop.

Quantification of manufacturing uncertainties for an axial compressor blade in CFD


Any technical application is affected by a range of uncertainties. These can be variations of the environmental conditions, which impact the systems behaviour. But also, the inevitable tolerances of the manufacturing processes involved can have a large impact on the final performance. In turbomachinery CFD, deterministic evaluations are common since a long time, however the uncertainties involved have been neglected. In NUMECA’s FINE™/Turbo a dedicated module for UQ has been developed, which was recently extended to cope with geometrical uncertainties as well. The UQ method adopted uses a non-intrusive probabilistic collocation method, which means that no modifications to the flow solver itself are necessary. To allow for a larger number of concurrent uncertainties, a sparse grid formulation for the collocation points is included as well. Using this methodology, the rotor blade of a transonic axial compressor stage is analysed in detail. The impact of a variety of geometrical deviations on the performance of the compressor is evaluated, along multiple points of the speed line – these are near choke, best efficiency and near stall conditions. Furthermore, both the computational effort and numerical accuracy of the UQ module are assessed as well, showing that an industrial application of such UQ is feasible. Also, an inverse design problem is derived, which allows to calculate the necessary manufacturing tolerances for a required performance variability.

Thomas Hildebrandt, NUMECA Ingenieurbüro
Tino Biebrach, TU Dresden
Sven Albert, NUMECA Ingenieurbüro